Monday’s Politics Fix

Tomorrow is the all important (is there an echo in here Ohio and Texas) Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania. Thanks to New Hampshire we can no longer trust any polling that is done prior to the actual primary. That being said, polls have shown a wide range of possible outcomes.

Today I have seen polls showing an Obama lead by a few points, and I have seen polls showing a double digit lead for Clinton. The speculation is that who ever is able to turn out their base, will be the victor. At this point, Obama is polling better among those who have typically voted for him than Clinton among her base of support.

Realistically, Clinton needs to win by a 25 point margin (something she has yet to do in any primary) to stay mathematically alive in the pledged delegate count. I think that anything more than a 10 point win will be spun by the Clintons as a sign they need to stay in the race.

If Obama is able to keep in under 10 points, or win the fucking thing, I can see no way that she can continue this charade. Her whole justification for staying in this losing battle is that she has won “big” states (New York, California and Ohio, all states that will likely go Democrat in November regardless of who that is) if she is unable to win “big” tomorrow, that justification no longer applies, if it ever did.

I don’t know how she can compete with this…


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