A few weeks ago I posted about my anxiety concerning my upcoming fantasy baseball drafts and my utter lack of preparation.
Years past (when I had a bit more time on my hands) I would have an entire binder of information compiled by the end of February. This year, that wasn’t the case.
I pride myself on finding players who greatly out-perform their draft value, as in I pick a guy in the 1oth round, who performs like a 2nd rounder. This was the case last year when I grabbed Matt Kemp, coming off a down year, only to have him perform like the best player in baseball. This year, Kemp is a Top 3 pick, if not the #1 overall pick.
Now, there is no way I draft him this year. My job is to find the 2012 version of Matt Kemp. Who is going to be the guy who carries my team, but costs me a 15th rounder? I obviously cannot state that here, as I am sure my competition is looking for any edge they can get (I won 2 out of 3 leagues last year).
My mistake in the past has been to rely too heavily on guys with low value and high upside. I get burned every once in a while. For every Matt Kemp, there is always a Jason Bay, the guy who was primed for a major bounce back that never materialized.
I have two more drafts this weekend and one extended draft that is going on as I type this.