I personally do not believe in jinxes.
I think what is going to happen is going to happen. Therefore I feel confident in stating that I believe we are looking a a fairly decisive victory for President Obama in November.
I was pretty sure this was going to be the case prior to the RNC last week, and nothing that happened there changed my thinking.
Following the DNC this week, I feel more confident in making this claim. I was reading Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com yesterday. If you harken back to ’08 and ’10, you will remember that Nate was just about as dead-on as one can be with forecasting the outcome of the election. Nate makes the comparison to golf. Stating that President Obama has a three stroke lead with three holes to play (the debates being those three holes..?) Nate’s point is that because President Obama does not need to make up ground in order to win (he has him with a 77% chance of winning the election as of today) all he needs to do is not “bogey a hole” (as someone who has recently taken up golf, I love all of these references) in order to win.
In my opinion, the Democrats did a masterful job highlighting the long list of successes that President Obama can claim. While at the same time reminding the American people what an absolute mess he inherited.
Some of the best moments from the DNC include Representative Gabrielle Giffords leading the audience in the Pledge of Allegiance. You will remember that Mrs. Giffords is the survivor of an assassination attempt. Her presence serves as a reminder that at times, public servants literally put their lives on the line in order to do their jobs:
The First Lady, Michelle Obama’s speech:
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick’s speech:
And who I believe will be the first Latino President of the United States, Houston Texas Mayor, Julian Castro’s speech:
And the return of Bubba:
I think this entire week was a resounding win for the Democratic party. I believe the goal was to remind people that the Government is not their enemy, and that it is all of our responsibilities to make sure that through our own self-government, we continue to perfect this union. MSNBC’s Chris Hayes made the point last night, and I have failed to find a video, that during election time it is easy to forget just how special our system is. For the vast majority of human history, disputes between people of different races, nation or regions of origin, or political ideology settled their disputes through bloodshed and war. For 150 years, America has not had to resort to killing our own because of political differences. There is something truly special about the American system of self-government and it is all of our responsiblity to ensure that the Government works for ALL of US.